Reports from Hong Kong media and the blogosphere in China are talking of a radical upset in next weeks change of leadership with hardliners looking to take control of the seven member standing committee.

The return to the failed policies of the past would be disastrous for China economically, socially and politically but the insistence of the current regime to suppress dissent and censor criticism, not for the oft quoted reasons of social stability, but to hide their grubby secrets which range from gross self enrichment to somewhat bizarre sexual behaviors has opened the door for hardliners and anti-reformists to take control.

It is a squandered opportunity. China’s emerging middle class have embraced new technology and the country could have been a world leader and innovator in the use of social media to usher in peaceful social reform if the leadership had really wanted it.

The hardliners are now an attractive alternative  because they offer a return to a time of supposed political stability under Jiang Zemin. It is his appointees who are at the forefront of the move.

It is naive to expect moral decisions from more than a minority of those who wield power. But self interest of the kind that looks further than the next corrupt deal or squalid sexual dalliance should have motivated China’s current leadership at all levels to have tried to secure the recent reforms in place and not allow the door to be opened to the lunatic failed communist past.

The attraction of instant gratifications means the leadership ignored that danger and have blindly gone about illicitly enriching themselves and their families at the same time using the country’s draconian censorship apparatus to hide this malfeasance from the rest of s0ciety.

Instead of grabbing the opportunity of creating a vibrant open and involved society with China’s widespread adoption of the internet and social media, the leadership instead suppressed information and quietly made a fortune.

It is hardly surprising the average Chinese worker is unamused by this sort of behavior which leads to the threat of the greatly feared social upheaval. And well it should be feared. When the communists came to power the first people up against the wall and shot were the officials who had been enriching themselves at the country’s expense.

This is a case of “same meat different gravy”. The titular communists may be in power but they are behaving like their capitalist forebears and could well meet a similar fate.

In this uncertainty it is hardly a shock that the consensus will be to look for a safe haven and the only one on offer is a retreat into the past.

The problem with a blunt instrument like censorship is that it never works. Word gets out sooner or later and recently it has spread far and wide from the Bo Xilai debacle to the more recent revelations about billions of dollars accumulated by  Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and his family revealed  by the New York Times just over a week ago.

But it is hardly new. Former British diplomat Hugh Cortazzi  in May this year wrote about the 3000 Chinese princlings, the children of high ranking officials currently attending grotesquely expensive British schools and universities.

Continue reading »

 

The Atlantic  has found a slightly off beat but possibly key indication that Jiang Zemin has died and there will be an official announcement tomorrow

An article says : “UPDATE: This email from Michael Standaert in southern China:”

>>More from the rumor mill, via an odd route: Just heard from a young acquaintance here in Shenzhen over QQ that Internet game operators he knows have been given notice not to allow any Internet gaming tomorrow, so he was speculating that an official announcement about Jiang Zemin will come tomorrow.<<

Click here for the full article

 

Rumors on the internet in China that former leader Jiang Zemin is dead has sparked a blanket suppression effort by the Chinese censors who have even blocked “Jiang” the word for river in an effort to contain the speculation.

While the veracity of the rumours are yet to be established it again hightlights the ludicrous nature of censorship in China – citizens cannot even know if a former leader is dead or what their current leader says in a CNN interview.

These sorts of restrictions on information only serve to fuel the more extreme claims annd conspiracies at the same time ensuring wide spread coverage and uninformed speculation. This is far more likely to be harmful than the not unexpected news that an ill, aging former leader is dying or dead.

Having power over information becomes so habitual for those who wield it and jealously hold on to it  that what little judgement and common sense the censors or those who direct them once had has gone out the window. This why closed regimes die from within – you can only keep the lid on for so long and in the days of the online world that lid has leaks.

Google news is carrying an AP report saying:  ”The Internet cat-and-mouse game over the possible death of a former leader underscores how secretive China’s Communist Party leadership remains — and the difficulties of maintaining that secrecy in a well-wired society.

Continue reading »